How should weather forecasts be interpreted?

Weather forecasts are based on a detailed analysis of meteorological fields in the atmosphere, which serve as input data for meteorological models used by meteorologists. Therefore, the resulting output depends on many factors, ranging from the quality of input data to the meteorologist's experience.

Despite a large amount of data and the complexity of the entire process, unfortunately with a system as complicated as the atmosphere it is not possible to make a 100% accurate forecast. Accuracy is reduced with length of time (with an increasing number of days) and detail (for example, hourly forecasts cannot be taken literally "hourly").

In accordance with our philosophy at Meteocentre, we, unlike the competition, bring you a large amount of quality data, which when correctly interpreted will help you better plan your activities. So how should weather forecasts be understood so that they are of the greatest benefit to you?

The basic forecast

(the row with the forecast for the particular location for six days) is created exclusively by the meteorologist on duty. Its purpose is to relay the dominant character of weather on a particular day and the temperature ranges. The first temperature range has to do with the predicted probability of a successful forecast in percent (it is lower in uncertain weather situations). This type of forecast when individual days are clicked on is accompanied by an hourly breakdown and notes for the particular area, making this the most reliable source of forecast.

Hourly forecast

The hourly forecast is the result of our unique model and the large number of apps we have created as well as the system in which the meteorologist adjusts input data from models. Although the forecast is written out in detail and indicates the predominant type of weather at a particular hour, it will most likely provide information about the dominant character of weather and its development in a particular period.

Both specified types of forecasts may occasionally differ from each other, which can be attributed to different times of updating and the meteorologist's use of a single symbol to summarise weather on a particular day.

Long-term 14-day forecast

This requires an outlook regarding the most probable weather developments. In view of the complexity of the system described above, as of the fourth day it is necessary to pay increased attention to the specified probability of a successful forecast. In particular, days in the second week will most likely provide an overview of the probable dominant type of weather.